Key Economic Data Releases – Week of April 28

Markets are preparing for a crucial week with a slew of critical economic data releases that may influence the near-term trajectory of monetary policy and risk assets. Monday should be quiet on the data release front, but starting Tuesday, a series of key indicators is scheduled to be released, offering fresh insights into the health of the U.S. economy.

Tuesday, April 29th

• 10:00 AM ET - JOLTS Job Openings (March) - Forecast: 7.48M | Previous 7.568M | Actual 7.192M
• 10:00 AM ET - Consumer Confidence (April) - Forecast: 87.7 | Previous: 92.9 | Actual 86.0

Consumer sentiment has been in steady decline, decreasing for a fourth month in March and dipping below the range that had held widely since 2022. Levels of confidence are at post-recession lows. The analysts are playing it safe, predicting a further decline to 87.7, but any positive surprise could serve as an upside catalyst for the markets.

Consumer Confidence Index Chart, source: The Conference Board

Wednesday, April 30

• 8:15 AM ET - ADP Employment Report (April) Forecast: 110,000 | Previous: 155,000 | Actual 62,000
• 8:30 AM ET - GDP (Q1 2025) Forecast: 0.4% | Previous: 2.4% | Actual -0.3%
• 10:00 AM ET - Core PCE Price Index (March) Forecast: 0.1% | Previous: 0.4 % | Actual 0.0%

Wednesday will be the turning point as markets digest employment, growth, and inflation data. The ADP jobs report, which tracks private-sector job creation, had previously registered unexpected strength with 155,000 jobs added in March despite weakening consumer sentiment and policy uncertainty. Economists are, nevertheless, predicting a softer print of 110,000 for April, reflecting growing caution on the part of businesses struggling with economic headwinds and retreating on capital expenditures.

The GDP report is likely the most eagerly anticipated release of the week. After a strong 2.4% annualized growth in Q4 2024, expectations for Q1 2025 have evaporated, with consensus expectations hovering around 0.4%. S&P Global's latest survey shows 1% annualized growth, while the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model points to a potential -2.5% drop. A weak print could add to recession concerns, while an upside surprise could eliminate some worries.

GDP Percent Change from Preceding Quarter, source: bea.gov

Conversely, the Core PCE, the Fed's most preferred inflation measure, is only estimated to have risen 0.1% in March after a hotter than expected 0.4% rise in February. Any upside surprise could reshape expectations regarding the timing and magnitude of future Fed rate cuts. Markets are pricing in three cuts from the fed this year, there is a 50% probability of a first cut in June.

PCE excluding food and energy - source: bea.gov

Thursday, May 1

• 8:30 AM Eastern Time - Initial Jobless Claims Forecast: 226k | Previous 222k | Actual ( TBA )
• 10:00 AM ET - ISM Manufacturing PMI (April) Forecast: 47.8 | Previous: 49.0 | Actual ( TBA )

The ISM factory numbers will offer additional proof on the industrial front of the economy. Factory activity declined for the first time this year in March, weighed down by increasing costs that have been worsened by persistent tariff pressures on supply chains. Wall Street anticipates more decline in the manufacturing segment, with expectations of a PMI reading of 47.8, which signals a larger contraction.

Manufacturing PMI trend, source: ISM - Institute of Supply Management

Friday, May 2.

• 8:30 AM ET - U.S. Non-farm Payrolls (April) Forecast: 138k | Prior: 228k
• 8:30 AM ET - U.S. Unemployment Rate (April) Forecast: 4.2% | Previous: 4.2%

Friday's labor market data will wrap up the week. The Bureau of Labor Statistics recorded a robust 228,000 non-farm payroll gain last month, but economists are expecting a sharp April slowdown to 138,000. The jobless rate is seen holding steady at 4.2%.

Fed Governor Waller, have indicated that a significant increase in the unemployment rate would be a catalyst for a sooner move towards interest rate reductions. Consequently, an abrupt slowdown in employment growth or a rise in unemployment would have important policy implications.

US Unemployment rate March 2025, shaded areas represent recessions, source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

With several high-impact releases in the pipeline, the week ahead has the potential to be a turning point for both policymakers and markets. Keep following our live coverage as the data is released.